"Below Normal" Hurricane Season Predicted for 2015
Based on an extended range forecast for the North Atlantic that was calculated mid-April, Coastal Carolina University’s Hurricane Genesis and Outlook (HUGO) Project has anticipated a low hurricane season this year.
HUGO is a hurricane model system developed by scientists that was first unveiled and utilized in 2013. It bases its calculations on 22 climatological factors that track oceanic, atmospheric and shoreline activity.
Last year, HUGO’s outlook forecast was highly successful with an anticipated outlook of hurricane landfalls ranging between zero and two. The actual number of landfalls was one.
HUGO predicts that for this year’s hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 through November 30, it’s highly likely that no hurricanes will make landfall on either the U.S. East Coast or the U.S. Gulf Coast.
In regards to storms this season, the outlook predicts that overall there will be seven to 10 named tropical storms, three to six hurricanes and only one to two major hurricanes.
As more observational climate data becomes available, HUGO will release updated hurricane outlooks during the months of June, July and August of this year.
For more information, visit bcmw.coastal.edu.